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Poor Trends: Can We End Extreme Poverty by 2030?

How much can growth reduce poverty? How much can redistribution do? PhD Fellow Richard Bluhm, UNU-MERIT, argues that the pace of poverty reduction will slow down; and their optimistic scenario suggest a poverty rate of 8-9 per cent in 2030, far short of the World Bank’s new 3 per cent target.

He will present their findings at the Center for Global Development on September 24. For more seminar information, please visit the CGD’s website.

We review the origins of the dollar-a-day poverty line, discuss historical poverty and inequality trends, and forecast poverty rates until 2030 using a new fractional response approach. Three findings stand out. First, global poverty reduction since 1981 has been rapid but regional trends are heterogeneous. Second, the pace of poverty reduction at 1.25$ a day will slow down. Our optimistic scenarios suggest a poverty rate of 8-9% in 2030, far short of the World Bank’s new 3% target. Third, rapid progress can be maintained at 2$ a day, with an additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.

Reference
Can We End Extreme Poverty by 2030? New Working Paper
Bluhm et al (2014) Poor trends – The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda.

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